African Continental Free Trade Area: Reality or Myth?

The African Continental Free Trade Area /AfCFTA, signed in Kigali on 21^st March 2018 in the extraordinary summit of the African Heads of states, was considered an important event in the framework of the AU development. This agreement was signed by 44 countries on the continent dwelt by 1.2 billion people. AfCFTA was concurrently signed with the common market protocol of which 27 countries were signatories. Five countries namely Burundi, Nigeria, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, and Eritrea never signed any agreement.

   This AfCFTA originated from AU and the latter was a result of the Organization of African Unity/OAU. It was a process that started almost 40 years ago with the signing of the Lagos Plan of Action in 1980 and the adoption of the Abuja Treaty in 1991 establishing the African Economic Community, whose finality was African Common Market. Under the influence of Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi, the leader of the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya (1999 Sirte Declaration on the AU), AU had to adopt the Pan-African Parliament, the African Central Bank and one currency by 2000.

   Even though AfCFTA was signed, it remains a question of enforcement of the agreements due to a number of challenges such as (a) a fragmented organization with many areas of focus, (b) the question of democratization (c) overdependence on partners fund and finally, (d) a lack of political will.

   Experience indicated that the AU does not pull in the same direction because of fragmented goals embedded in individual national interests or scattered regional blocks. For instance, across the continent, we count more than 10 regional organizations such as CEEAC, COMESA, EAC, SADC, ECOWAS, UMA and the like. The inefficiency of these organizations contributes or has been contributing to the weakness of the AU. In particular, when conflicts break out, countries standing alone or within their respective regional organizations remain divided on continental common interests as enshrined in instruments ratified by country members. As we recollect, the failure to prevent the genocide that wiped out Rwanda in 1994 and conflict in DRC that resulted in the loss of the lives of almost 6,000,000 people since 1996 are indicators that AU institutions do not pull in the same direction, and is yet to be seen if this new AfCFTA would make the expected achievements. A fragmented organization with many areas of focus and a lack of political will within the AU is an evidence that much efforts are to be made as prerequisites of a strong organization. The refusal of the two big economic powers in Africa, namely Nigeria and South Africa, to sign the AfCFTA agreement is an eye-opener with regard to a lack of political will which has been hampering or still hampers the effectiveness of the AU.

   In addition, the question of democratization is another challenge that may hinder the AfCFTA to attain the proposed goals. Many countries in Africa have not had free and fair elections and this phenomenon contributes to unconstitutional leaderships through military coups or leaders who choose to stay in office despite the lack of electoral support. In such environment, the network of people who have access to state resources are ready to die for the ruling government’s agenda to maintain their status quo. Hence, it is worth noting that such practices contradict one of their objectives which is to promote democratic principles and institutions, popular participation, and good governance.

   One would think that for AU’s institutions to become sustainable, the democratization process should be prioritized to build institutions which will not collapse or become dormant once people who championed them are no longer in power. One can here give an example of “Communauté des Pays de Grands Lacs/CPGL that became dormant as the presidents who initiated them are no longer in power.

   Overdependence on partners’ funding is another shortfall that shakes the AU. Since it was created, the African Union was financed by donors, where for example, from 2014 to 2017, more than 70% of its budget originated from donors. In fact, financial means should be considered as a spinal cord of any regional organization such as the AU to avoid political and economic intrusions through aid of conditionality. The reforms initiated by the current president of Rwanda to rescue the AU from total dependence of external donors should be hailed. It is expected that funding at 100% should be provided by the AU member states.

   To wind up, for the AU institutions to become strong and sustainable, a political will that coalesces Africans to pull in the same direction is a panacea. The political will must be a denominator compelling African leaders to be bound by values and goals agreed upon related to AfCFTA in the framework of the AU. Such political will strengthens the process of democratization and institutionalization to boost socio-economic development in Africa.

Dott. Jean Baptiste Ndikubwimana