Is there life in Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev?

In the new structure of the government of Kazakhstan, it is difficult to understand how decisions are made. Who and where does it. It’s complicated. Especially after 30 years of monocentric politics of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who constitutionally proclaimed himself the Leader of the Nation. Therefore, the extremes in the estimates – “in the country of dual power”, “Nazarbayev did not go anywhere”, ” Tokayev started his game.”

   Radical changes in the system of public administration, launched in March this year, predetermined the need for comprehensive reform of the socio-political sphere. It was also necessary to adapt the ruling party to the new conditions, which, admittedly, did not always have time to update its approaches taking into account the changing social moods and the state modernization agenda. The permanent leader of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev is still the leader of the Nur Otan party. If we give a temporary assessment now, then conceptually Nur Otan seeks to maintain a monopoly in the Parliament. The full implementation of the functions of the ruling party in all areas has begun.

   With a difference of a week with the participation of Elbasy Nazarbayev (“Leader of the Nation” on the Kazakh language) held Bureau and political Council of the party. This has never happened before. All this testifies to the full support of the country’s leadership for the ongoing reforms in Nur Otan. Being the party of the parliamentary majority Nur Otan began to systematically use legislative and monitoring tools through increasing the status and role of the dominant faction. Gradually, this should strengthen the position of the Parliament in controlling the work of the Executive power. The same applies to the factions in the regional organs, which have not yet used their powers to the full.

   A large-scale process of updating the personnel of the party has been launched. The Central bodies of the party now have a team from different regions and structures with solid experience. In six regions, the first Deputy heads of the party’s branches were replaced. There is a clear trend for rejuvenation. It was also announced the systematic introduction of the mechanism of primaries for the selection of the most authoritative and active representatives in the party lists in the future elections with a claim to legitimacy.

   The public demand for renewal, especially in the regions, has long been identified. Therefore, if Nur Otan manages to effectively organize transparent and competitive internal party elections, it is highly likely that the party’s ranks will be replenished not just by leaders of public opinion, but potentially by politicians of a new format.

   One way or another, Nur Otan is a leading political entity, which on this basis should set trends in the development of the political system. The reboot of the party has started. The regional structures of the Republican public Council for the fight against corruption have been withdrawn from the “sleeping” mode. The shake-up is carried out through the renewal of structures, which involve civil activists who know the specifics of corruption risks on the ground.

   I think no one will argue with the fact that corruption is one of the most important problems in Post-Soviet countries. Moreover, it creates many other problems and hinders development in various spheres of life of society and the state. We can, of course, say that in other countries of the world there is corruption in various manifestations. You can also rely on the society, a large part of which, though condemns bribery, but she constantly contributes to its development through bribery traffic police or head of the kindergarten. But that’s not the point now.

   In short, the level of corruption can be judged by the way it is fought, the effectiveness of this fight. And that’s exactly what we have a big problem with. Despite various reforms, statements from high tribunes and so on, the situation with this case in the country does not change. Some may say that Kazakhstan has improved its indicators according to international standards, including the corruption perception index over the past couple of years. However, this was large because things had deteriorated in other countries. Perhaps there are actual improvements in some areas of the Anti-corruption Agency of Kazakhstan, but something is not visible that they relate to its direct activities.

   Current President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his speeches repeatedly spoke about the special importance of combating corruption. In May, he identified 7 main directions of this struggle, and at the end of the summer, at a meeting with the new Chairman of the Anti-corruption Agency Alik Shpekbayev, he noted the need for timely adoption of legislative and organizational measures to implement the instructions given during the expanded meeting on combating corruption. At the same time, Kasym-Jomart Tokayev persistently repeated the need to introduce the institution of the resignation of the first heads of the state body for corruption crimes of subordinates. But objectively speaking, we, as ordinary citizens of the country, do not see any changes.

   I will not say that the Agency sabotage the instructions of the President, but a stable opinion is created, the words and instructions of Mr. Tokayev “thanks” to the anti-corruption officers again fly to the wind. As a result, the people have the opinion that the President is not responsible for his words and not the heads of certain departments. By the way, the current Head of state pays special attention to restoring order on the ground (especially in the regions), and in a certain area without the help of “financial police,” it will be difficult to do so. After all, some of our officials on the ground understand only the language of the “whip”.

   Involuntarily think about the fact that the first heads of Agency on the fight against economic and corruption crime, in the early 90-s, worked more surely, and in some cases even more rigidly. It is clear that there were various nuances and speculation, but in any case, the concrete results of the agency were visible. But in any case, under previous leaders, the Agency worked better and achieved more spectacular results.

   Perhaps it will sound a little simple, but in the opinion of most such work is judged by the “big catches”, but with this, just the anti-corruption officers have no significant results. There is no recent detention of any major official – a corrupt official or a top Manager of the national holding. Max – some kind of “vice”. After all, it is hard to believe that in the country suddenly everything became good with corruption in the notorious Corps “A”. The people will never believe it. It is not something that we need big sacrifices, but simply because it is, indeed, an indicator of effective control. It seems that the President himself does not believe in this, as he raises this issue, again and again, not being satisfied with the reports of the Agency’s management on duty.

   And, again, not just Kasym-Jomart Tokayev focuses on the responsibility of the first leaders for corruption crimes of his direct subordinates. Even if caught red-handed “vice” or some Deputy in structural divisions, we do not see that the Minister or someone like that resigned. They even comment on such arrests with reluctance and somehow unconvincingly.

   And after all, there are also other, accompanying so to speak indicators. Take the same Alik Shpekbayev head of Anti-Corruption agency. His son, Damir Shpekbayev, is now Vice President for development and Commerce of PetroKazakhstan Oil Products. I think that it is wrong when the son of the head of the Department is appointed to a senior position in the structural unit of the national company. Of course, the son is not responsible for the father, but the father must bear responsibility, or at least feel it, no? So there are some questions. Does this situation create a “conflict of interest”? Does that now anti-corruption agency “toothless” before the national company? If not, why not prosecuted Commercial Director of JSC “Ozenmunaygas”, which received complaints from local entrepreneurs? Maybe it’s the first head of the Department, which is too advertised and created him far from reality image? Is it time to replace the Chairman with a more effective leader?

Alisher Mukhametkali