Are we witnessing the end of bipartisanship in El Salvador?

Since the signing of the peace accords that put an end to the 12-year-civil war, El Salvador has been characterized by a bipartisanship that only exacerbated in time, politically polarizing the country. ARENA (Alianza Republicana Nacionalista) is the party of the Salvadoran elite. A far right-wing party that ruled the country during 20 years (from 1989 to 2009) and that implemented neoliberal policies that did not have the expected results. Instead, the best resources of the country were sold to foreigners while the elite used the government to fill their own pockets.

   Tired of them, Salvadorans switched to the leftist FMLN (Frente Farabundo Marti para la Liberacion Nacional), party characterized by its beginnings as a guerrilla group during the civil war, and that achieved legal political status as a result of the peace accords. FMLN has ruled El Salvador since 2009 until now. In spite of all the bad propaganda against FMLN (e.g. that voting for them would make of El Salvador another Cuba), Salvadorans decided to vote for them in an attempt to change what the country had become: a tiny country, owner of nothing else than a huge work force that had to be exported due to the lack of opportunities in the homeland.

   As the years passed, Salvadorans witnessed the unimaginable: that leftist political party that had fought so hard for the poorest and oppressed people during the civil war, slowly became as corrupt and as oligarchic as their right-win counterparts. This caused a profound disenchantment and a general apathy from the people towards the main political parties, FMLN and ARENA. The political party that was supposed to be progressive was not so much in the end. After 9 years of ruling under FMLN, El Salvador is still one of the poorest countries in Latin America, it continues to export its labor force (which is now more educated than ever before), reproductive rights such as the abortion (in all cases) is a taboo, gender equality is far from being a reality, and the LGBT community is still stigmatized. Furthermore, El Salvador became one of the most dangerous countries in the world, according to the World Economic Forum. And the gangs took an unprecedented power in the social and even in the political life of the country. This only helped exacerbate the migration issue. Near one third of the Salvadoran population has decided to emigrate, most of them to the United States.

   Salvadorans feel betrayed by both major political parties. And because of this, 26 years after the birth of bipartisanship, El Salvador seems to be experiencing a profound change, that is likely to materialize in the next presidential elections in 2019: voters want to get rid of the two traditional majoritarian parties.

   Legislative and local elections of March. In March, El Salvador had legislative and local elections. It was expected some decline in the vote share for the incumbent party, FMLN. But this expected decline became a massacre. FMLN obtained a reduction of 44% of the vote share compared to that one obtained in the last legislative elections. In other words, they lost almost half of their voters. On the other hand, ARENA’s vote share declined 7%. At the same time, the other minor parties (such as GANA, PCN, PDC, and CD) saw an increase in their vote share. This left ARENA as the majoritarian political party in the national assembly with 37 deputies out of 84. While the FMLN obtained only 23.  Furthermore, with respect to the local government results, FMLN’s vote share decreased by almost 25%, while that of ARENA increased by 2%. Small parties also saw a small increase in their vote share. As a result, ARENA won 137 municipalities out of 262, while the FMLN won only 68. Among the municipalities that the FMLN lost is the most important one: the municipality of San Salvador, the capital of the country. This represented a huge defeat for the incumbent party, especially if we take into consideration that presidential elections are next year.

   Even though these results could be seen as a victory for ARENA at first sight, we should probably consider that people decided to punish the incumbent dramatically by reducing their vote share. If ARENA had been the “winner”, then their vote share should have probably increased as much as FMLN’s vote share decreased. However, ARENA did not actually see this increase materialize. This can only mean that people were not trying to reward ARENA. They were simply trying to punish FMLN. The people who voted for them in the last election simply did not vote for them anymore, voted for a small party, invalidated their own vote or voted blank. In fact, 81,100 people invalidated their own vote while 11,097 voted blank. This constituted the third political force in the elections as a whole. Furthermore, it seems like people are making a very thorough and rational choice. The public opinion is that voters hit hard one of the actors that so much damage has caused to the country, but that this hit was only half of the intended objective. The other half will come in 2019.

   A new trend. The current political scenario is showing a new trend: while both major political parties are in decline, a new one is rising, one that has attracted adepts from the left, the right, the center, and even the ones that are always undecided and skeptical. A 36-year-old business man who was expelled from his party (FMLN) and who took with him the support of thousands of people who have seen in him a new hope: Nayib Bukele.

   Bukele began his career as a politician with FMLN after being elected Mayor in the municipality of Nuevo Cuscatlán, a small city in the state of La Libertad, where he greatly contributed to the economic, social, and cultural development of the city through a variety of policies that benefited the local population. His success was such that he even got international recognition. After this, he became the Mayor of San Salvador, replicating the success obtained in his previous municipality. This made him win an enormous popular support, especially from the young population, who saw in him a leader interested in the wellbeing of the people.

   His expulsion from FMLN was messy. As Bukele began to publicly criticize his own party for failing at governing rightfully, the conflicts between him and his party became evident. During one of these conflicts, he was accused of verbal aggression to a fellow colleague at the City Hall. The case escalated until reaching the legal system. In the end, the justice declared him not guilty. He was expelled from this party, nonetheless. However, by then, thousands of people had already showed their support towards Bukele, who ended up implying that he would begin his own political party. He got even more popular support from those who were angry at their own political parties. In the end, he organized a movement so powerful that got the attention and support of a good part of the Salvadoran diaspora around the world.

   Nevertheless, not everybody is pleased with all this revolution. Both major political parties are literally against Bukele. And so is the media (which is controlled by the Salvadoran elite) and the big groups of private companies (also controlled by the elite). According to a recent poll by a right wing poll center, Mitofsky Group, 40% of the population said they would vote for Bukele, in case he presents himself as a candidate for the presidency of El Salvador in 2019. From the interviewed people, 26% would vote for ARENA and 16% for FMLN. These news are not exactly good for either of the major political parties, given that they control the political and economic life of the country, and would see their personal interests jeopardized. As such, Bukele has suffered attacks from everyone.

                                                                    Source: Mitofsky Group

   As an example, the final results of the elections of March 4^th have not yet been published. One of the most important implications of this delay is that, by law, the Electoral Supreme Tribunal cannot accept any request for registration of a new political party. Therefore, Bukele will not be able to legally register his new political party, New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas), until the Electoral Supreme Tribunal publishes the official results of the last elections. As the Tribunal cannot be said to be fully independent from any political party (as it should be), there is a serious concern regarding the undermining of the Salvadoran democracy.

   It is yet to be seen what the result of this battle will be, but the people seem to have already decided who they want to support in the next presidential race. But for this to happen, the Salvadoran democratic institutions must work well and in favor of the people instead of the private interests of a few.

Dott.ssa Ana Figueroa