The North African country Libya was plunged into political and social instability after “February Revolution” in 2011, which ended the longtime dictatorship of colonel Muammar Gaddafi. However, in 2012 the country held democratic elections (GNC, General National Congress elections) for the first time in almost half a century. In fact, after Libya gained independence in 1951 and Idris al-Sanusi was proclaimed king (Idris I, 1951-1969), the parliamentary elections were conducted regularly every four years. But after Gaddafi (1969-2011) had acceded to power through military coup in September 1969, both the constitution of the kingdom and the electoral law were suspended, and since then, the participation in political life was considered as a crime under his law.
In 2014, while Libyan people were preparing for the parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives, on February 14, General Khalifa Haftar backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and France, had made an unsuccessful coup d’état attempt by announcing on the Saudi-owned TV channel “al-Arabiya” that he had suspended the GNC, the government and the Constitutional Declaration. However, In June 2014, the elections were held normally. But after the elections were complete, two constitutional claims were brought before the Libyan Supreme Court (LSC). In November 2014, the Court ruled the elections were invalid, and therefore, the House was accordingly dissolved.
Due to controversy over the Supreme Court ruling, most of the members of the House refused to take office from GNC in Tripoli, instead, they established their parliament in Tobruk in the far-east of the country. A decision was strongly influenced by Haftar and his allies. The international community through the United Nations Special Mission to Libya (UNSMIL) announced recognition of the newly established Parliament ignoring the LSC ruling. They claimed that it was unreasonable and implausible at the time to dissolve the House. Haftar took advantage of that and created an armed militia, gave it the name “Libyan National Army” and launched a military operation called “al-Karama Operation” under the pretext of combating terrorism. He fully controlled the Parliament of Tobruk and its parallel government in the East of the country.
The country is now divided between two political and military powers, the Government of National Accord (GNA) which based in Tripoli and enjoys UN and international recognition, and Haftar and his self-styled Army in East Libya. Military tensions escalated between both sides when Haftar in January 2019 seized several Southern cities and towns with support from some local pro-Gaddafi supporters and also some towns in the West part of the country. And once again, while everyone was waiting for the Libyan National Conference which was scheduled on April 14-16 in the city of Ghadames (South-East) for organizing elections and other components of political accord and permanent peace in Libya, Haftar launched military offensive on Tripoli on April 4, 2019 to take the capital and unseat the UN-backed government, in the time the UN Secretary General António Guterres himself was visiting Tripoli. That occurred after only few days from Haftar’s visit to UAE and Saudi Arabia.
In this attack air power played a determined role. The air forces of Haftar were backed by Egyptian fighter jets and Emirati unmanned aerial vehicles or drones (Chinese-made Wing Loong drones). Due to the geography and the nature of the battlefield and the great ability of the drones to spot and attack any targets immediately with a very high rate of success, leaving no protection of Libyan Army from air attacks, Haftar’s Militia had succeeded to position itself only few kilometers away from Tripoli.
The aggression did not stop there, actually Haftar has expanded his military capabilities with the involvement of the Russians in his side. Perhaps the most major reinforcements were the installation of the Russian-made anti-aircraft artillery system “The Pantsir” in several different locations and also the deployment of more than 1,000 of Wagner Group mercenaries to strengthen his forces on the ground.
At the time the military situation was very hard for the Libyan Army and in favor of Haftar’s forces, a new element has intervened and totally turned the tide against Haftar, the Bayraktar drones. On November 27, 2019, Ankara and Tripoli signed a pact for military and security cooperation, and for maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean (two separate memorandums of understanding). Following this military deal, in December 2019 Turkey sent military support for Libyan Army to repel Haftar’s aggression. The support included Turkish-made armed drones (Bayraktar TB2).
The introduction of Bayraktar drones to the war was decisive. After months of defensive strategies due to Haftar’s air superiority, now the Libyan Army forces had air cover and air reconnaissance and were able to launch a counteroffensive. In short time the Libyan Army recaptured all the western cities, including Al-Watiya airbase South-West of Tripoli (one of the biggest airbases in Africa) which significantly weakened Haftar’s air defense system.
For the most part, the war has been air war and mostly fought by drones. With more that 1,000 air strikes conducted by drones, the former head of the UNSMIL Ghassan Salame called the conflict as “the largest drone war in the world”. Turkish masterpiece Bayraktar drone changed the course of the war, turning Haftar’s offensive into a hopeless military campaign. The Libyan Army was thus able to move forward reclaiming more land and strategic towns including Tarhuna, pushing the frontlines further eastward near the city of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli) which fell under Haftar’s Militia control earlier this year.
Today, the situation on the ground seems quiet. However, many observers expecting that this, perhaps, the calm before the storm and Haftar’s campaign will soon be over.